What the Lakers are missing

The Lakers are 9-2 with the best offense in the league. With Dončić and Kessler on the floor together, they have outscored teams by 26 points per 100 possessions, 132.5 to 106.6, over 429 possessions, about four games.

Split them up and it falls off fast. Dončić without Kessler is plus 10.9. Kessler without Dončić is minus 10.2. With neither, minus 13.9. The Lakers won both games Dončić missed, but the numbers point to what they need: a second big man. Without Kessler, opponents get to the line. Without Dončić, they get second shots.

Kessler keeps teams off the free throw line. With him on the floor, opponents have shot 22.0 free throws per 100 possessions. Without him, 37.2. No team allows more than Utah’s 30.9. The Lakers commit 21.2 fouls per 100 with Kessler and 28.2 without him.

When Kessler sits, Sandro Mamukelashvili plays center in 158 of those 175 minutes. Opponents take more of their shots at the rim, 27.4% against 23.5% with Kessler.

This is new. Last season, the Lakers were ninth in the league at grabbing their opponents’ misses, 74.8%, and seventh at keeping them off the line, 21.7 free throws per 100. This season they’re 28th, at 68.3%, and 22nd, at 27.4.

Dončić’s rebounding matters as much as his threes. He has scored 361 points in his nine games this season, 40.1 a game. Some of that won’t last. From 26 feet and beyond, he is 32 for 71 on threes, 45.1%, after 36.3% over the four seasons before. That’s about what Stephen Curry made from there in 2015-16, 44.9%. Since then, James Harden’s best season is 40.0%, Damian Lillard’s 41.3% and Dončić’s own 37.6%. His stepback threes, 22 of 51, are closer to his norm. He made 40.6% of them in 2023-24. At his own rates for those kinds of threes, he’d have about five fewer makes, less than two points a game.

The rebounding is the part the Lakers can’t replace. Dončić is grabbing 7.5 defensive rebounds per 36 minutes, about his usual. With him on the floor, the Lakers have rebounded 71.3% of their opponents’ misses. Without him, 63.4%, which would be the worst in the league.

The piece they’re missing is a second big man. Kessler can’t carry the glass alone. In his 271 possessions without Dončić, the Lakers have rebounded 61.2% of misses. And when Kessler sits, the free throws pile up. A backup center who rebounds and doesn’t foul fits both needs.

Rim protection is less clear. Opponents take fewer shots at the rim with Kessler on the floor, but they make them at the same rate, 68.3% with him and 68.6% without.

Eleven games is a small sample, and the minutes without Kessler are 378 possessions, about four games. Free throw and rebounding rates settle faster than points, which is why the case rests on them.

Start with the Lakers’ starters, then put anyone on or take anyone off and see what that group has done together this season.

Build a lineup

LDDončićMTThybulleARReavesWKKesslerJLLaRavia

5 of 5

Dončić, Thybulle, Reaves, Kessler and LaRavia: 65 minutes together, +30.0 per 100 possessions, likely +9.3.

Dončić, Thybulle, Reaves, Kessler and LaRavia

65min together+30.0net per 100123.1offense93.2defense+9.3likely per 100+6.5team’s other minutes

ARReavesOnWKKesslerOnLDDončićOnMTThybulleOnSMMamukelashvili–JLLaRaviaOnQGGrimes–ZWWilliams–CSSexton–JVVanderbilt–ATThiero–KLLooney–CCCarr–JHHardy–BJJames–LLLovering–

A full five.ClearOpen